Will the Vintage Bicycle Hobby be Gone in 20 Years?

 

A recurring topic today is what the hobby of refurbishing, collecting, and riding vintage bicycles might look like in five, ten, or even twenty years. 

If we're being honest, the future for most vintage bicycle segments is not strong. I wonder sometimes where we will be in 20 years, if this hobby survives in any substantial way at all. Why?

1. An aging demographic.
2. Antisocial or predatory behavior by some savvy, older collectors.
3. A generally sour economic situation in most places.
4. Parts and bike availability in some segments.
5. Rising incidental costs: shipping, consumable parts, etc. 

At the end, I will offer a few ideas that may turn the tide back against the general decline being caused by those factors.

Trends

1. An Aging Demographic: Most categories of vintage bicycles have an aging following. This is true of older 3-speeds, 10-speeds, balloon tire bikes, muscle bikes, and middleweights. Collectors who would generally be called "baby boomers" are the largest contingent, with younger collectors in the muscle bike, BMX, and vintage mountain bike categories. But even collectors in the generation x or millennial categories are aging into middle-age. Caring for children or grandchildren tends to take up time and resources as collectors age. Eventually old age and health problems sideline many collectors. Without an influx of younger collectors, the hobby stagnates and contracts. And there there are electric bikes. It seems like the under-30 crowd love electric bikes because it means less work (and maybe less exercise).  

2. Behavior: In the 30 years or so I've been in the vintage bike hobby, I've seen some instances of bad and predatory behavior, usually among some older collectors. This can take the form of trying to low-ball or down-swap new collectors, selling damaged or misrepresented goods to new collectors, or generally just dressing down new collectors through snobbish "gatekeeper" type behavior. I must say that the majority of collectors and sellers I have encountered are honest, good people. But it only takes one or two bad interactions to drive new collectors out of the hobby. So even if a small minority of the collector population behaves badly, that still can dampen interest by new people. The behavior in some countries seems better than others. At least in the USA though, I can confirm there is a certain contingent of older collectors who will give a new person "the treatment" if it means scoring a valuable bike/part or making a few extra dollars. 

   As long as this fairly describes "some" or "a few" members of the hobby, it will continue to be a problem for all of us in terms of bringing in new people. I have a story to illustrate this point. There was a vintage bicycle shop in my wife's hometown in an area known for antiques. I needed a set of pedals so I went to the shop. I walked in and the owner apparently had what he thought was a novice (he'd never seen me before). The shop owner tried to feel out what kind of old bikes I might have. I thought he was being friendly at first, but he dropped the "friendly" angle when he found out I had a bike he wanted. At that point he recommended I sell it to him for a "fair" (i.e. low-ball) price or even donate it so he could add it to his "museum", which was actually just his home collection. Being knowledgeable, I end up passing and getting pedals elsewhere. But a true novice might have been sucked in and lost a valuable bike for a low price or even just given it away. This kind of behavior is predatory and it hurts the entire hobby when it drives out new people.

   [Note - I cannot take credit for calling this kind of behavior "predatory". A fellow collector talking to me used this term for some of this market place behavior by older, savvy collectors. It struck me that it's a very fitting term for this behavior.]

3. A Sour Economic Situation: The economy is sour for most people, and has been for years. It has hit younger people especially hard due to education debt, housing costs, medical costs, etc. Most people are increasingly struggling with inflation, higher expenses, and flat employment prospects. Regular people worry that artificial intelligence might take their jobs. There is a general economic pessimism since COVID, and that holds many people back from discretionary purchases. Certainly vintage bikes fall into this category. How can you buy a vintage bike, even an affordable one, if you have $5,000 in medical bills sitting on the living room table? 

4. Parts and Bike Availability: Have you ever noticed that in some vintage bike categories it used to take days or weeks to find a certain older part, but now it takes months or even years? You're not alone. You may have in your head that a "40 year old bike" is a classic Schwinn balloon tire bike or a three speed Raleigh, but in reality the "40 year old bike" is now a 1980s BMX or mountain bike. As we get farther out from original production, bikes and parts dry up in some segments. Reduced demand also has not increased available supply. The result is you want longer for a part or bike to appear, but when it does appear, the price is generally lower. It's a weird combination. The lower price is buyer-friendly, but the wait seems to be longer if you're looking for that "one, really old part" you need to complete a project. 

5.  Rising Costs: It seems all the peripheral expenses of the hobby have gone way up. Tires, tubes, and handlebar grips are more expensive. Shipping costs are way, way up. Spokes are expensive. Brake pads go in and out of stock. Tariffs hit foreign supplies of parts, particularly those where you cannot get a USA-made or USA-stocked alternative. All these things hit the hobby, and when they hit all at once, new people may just find it all too expensive to get started.

So, What Can We Do?

We need to make the vintage bike hobby accessible and attractive to younger people. The hobby can teach younger people shop skills, how to start and follow-through on a project, how to negotiate sales, and how to "play nicely in the sandbox" (as the saying goes). This hobby is not the entirety of anyone's life, but it is a venue where younger people can learn valuable skills that come in handy throughout life. It also helps get them away from their mobile devices and into the "real world", not to mention good exercise. We cannot control the economy, but we can make this hobby friendlier to newcomers.

1. Take a Helpful Tone with New People: If you see a younger person interested in old bikes, offer to help them. This could mean selling a bike at a discount or donating a bike. It could mean teaching basic shop skills. It could be referring a young person to a bicycle club or a bike co-op. Instead of just asking what kind of bikes the newcomer owns, ask him how projects are coming along and if he or she needs help. 

2. Get Involved Generally: This is kind of a platitude, but there is a truth to it. If you have a local bike co-op, find time to volunteer. If you have a local bicycle club, donate old bikes that you may not need, or donate your time. Show up to local bicycle swaps with a bike or two and show younger people what these old machines are like. Ride vintage bicycles on the local road or trail group ride.

3. Connect With Individuals Online or Offline: Talk with younger hobbyists or people who might be interested. Don't be that person who tries to feel out if you can wrangle a nice old bike from a newcomer. Instead, offer to help that person with information, ideas, or skills. You can do this both online and offline. Offer to help without compensation. Share your collection with others rather than squirrel it away where no one will see. Ride vintage bicycles and talk with others when they say "hello" or ask questions.

4. Cut the New Person a "Break": Maybe you have a bike you want to sell. Instead of trying to get top dollar, offer a strong discount to a newer collector. Or maybe you have parts you don't need. Offer to give or discount parts to a new person who may find them useful. 

5. Always Be Fair: Don't shade or misrepresent item conditions. Disclose faults, and if the buyer seems like a novice, explain what's important to look for in a particular part or bike. Use the sale or trade as an educational opportunities. Again, don't try to low-ball or wrangle something valuable from a new person just to expand your collection.

6. Be Very Slow to Judge Others: If a newcomer shows up with a beat-up, 1970s department store bike because it's all they have, don't put the bike down. You don't know if this person has financial issues, or health issues, or whatever. If this is what they have, help the person with information or ideas to get the bike on the road. Don't immediately resort to the "it ain't worth it, kid" kind of thing. You can certainly encourage the person to be realistic, but do it helpfully and not in a critical way.

7.  Lastly, treat others as you would want to be treated. I'm convinced 60% of life's controversies and problems would be solved if people sincerely followed the "golden rule". I think it's the same in this hobby.